The invasion of Ukraine by Russia creates an unprecedented situation in European geopolitics and energy market dynamics.
Gas supply from Russia into Europe has remained at around the levels seen during the autumn/winter period of 2021, with only contractual minimum volumes supplied and thus a significant reduction in typical volumes.
Consequently, we expect to see prices remain very high. However, Russia’s act of war has fundamentally changed the energy policy landscape.
Whereas before, with the sanctioning of Nord Stream 2 seemingly the main objective, it was relatively easy to see a route back to a resumption of higher Russian gas flows, there is now a seemingly strong commitment from European countries to permanently reduce or eliminate the reliance on Russian natural gas.
In ths paper, we identify three broad scenarios for Europe's gas supplies. Download the report to read more.
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