Woman charging an electric car

Trump trade tariffs: Impact on the UK EV uptake

5 min read 10 April 2025 By Ryan Thomson, Partner and expert in energy solutions, and Toby Thornton, Partner and expert in e-mobility

The global automative industry is at a critical juncture, shaped by intersecting forces of electrification, geopolitical trade tensions, and national decarbonisation policy. The latest update to the UK’s ZEV Mandate confirms that the 2030 phase-out date for new petrol and diesel cars will remain, but with increased flexibility for manufacturers — including the continued sale of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles until 2035, and extensions to credit trading mechanisms that allow manufacturers to borrow against future ZEV sales. While car sales are broadly aligned with ZEV goals, van adoption lags, exacerbating challenges for manufacturing. These developments occur amidst growing pressure for affordability as median EV prices remain higher than ICE vehicles, despite a maturing second-hand market offering parity.
 
At the same time, China’s dominance in EV manufacturing, driven by early and deliberate government subsidy, sees companies like BYD reshaping the competitive landscape and surpassing Tesla in global sales in 2024. Chinese OEMs are also seeing aggressive price competition and market saturation at home. This dynamic is driving Chinese EVs into international markets, including the UK, where the demand for affordable EVs under £25,000 remains largely unmet by Western OEMs. Simultaneously, protective tariffs on automotive imports (including Chinese EVs) are likely to shift global supply chains and funnel oversupply into less restrictive markets like the UK, creating opportunities but also intensifying price competition.
 
With a ZEV Mandate that supports sales of hybrids to 2035 we could see a dilution in EV sales as OEMs double down on the most profitable PHEV segments, whilst the influx of lower-cost Chinese EVs may accelerate demand for affordable models and spur competition. A tariff war scenario could exacerbate affordability challenges and slow uptake whilst also creating opportunities for domestic OEMs. Regardless, we expect to see instability across residual values for both ICE vehicles and higher-cost Western EVs to 2030. For the UK market, addressing the interaction between global tariffs and the ZEV Mandate’s targets will be vital to provide certainty for consumers, infrastructure investors, and manufacturers navigating the EV transition.
 
Download our report below or get in touch with Ryan Thomson or Toby Thornton to find out more. 

Download Trump trade tariffs: Impact on the UK EV uptake

Download report

Our Experts

4087

Ryan Thomson

Partner, expert in Energy and Resources

Contact Ryan
27286

Toby Thornton

Expert in Power and Low Carbon Solutions

Contact Toby

Related Insights

Three ways in which increased volatility and flexibility are reshaping Spain’s energy market

Spain's energy market faces profound change due to curtailment, negative prices, and a recent blackout, discussed at our roundtable event.

Read more

Turbocharging the benefits of Great Britain's emerging home energy efficiency sector

Improving the energy efficiency of residential housing stock to an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) rating of C or above is not just an environmental necessity but also a powerful economic strategy that can deliver multifaceted benefits for society.

Read more
Man on a boat looking at an offshore facility

Driving economic growth by securing a cleaner and resilient future for the North Sea

Our report, published in conjunction with Offshore Energies UK (OEUK), outlines how the North Sea can continue to play a pivotal role in the energy system as the world shifts to net zero, while positioning the UK as a resilient, innovative and competitive player in the global energy landscape.

Read more
People having a conversation next to an electric car

From early adopters to early majority: Driving the next phase of EV growth

As EVs are moving beyond the early adopter phase, what are the principles needed for mass market adoption and progressing towards net zero targets?

Read more

Subscribe to our Energy and Resources Newsletter

Get industry news and trending topics direct to your inbox

Subscribe now

Contact us

Find out what we can do for you...

Get in touch

Is digital and AI delivering what your business needs?

Digital and AI can solve your toughest challenges and elevate your business performance. But success isn’t always straightforward. Where can you unlock opportunity? And what does it take to set the foundation for lasting success?

Find out more