How the Middle East crisis is reshaping global gas markets

Baringa’s latest analysis explores how disruption centred on the Strait of Hormuz is straining the resilience of global energy systems, triggering volatility across global gas markets that depend on just‑in‑time LNG supply. Drawing on world‑leading market modelling and deep sector expertise, we outline the scenarios, implications, and strategic considerations leaders need to prepare for in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment.

Understand what this means for your organisation

The 2026 Middle East crisis has triggered one of the most significant stress‑tests of the global oil and gas system. In this analysis we examine how the escalating conflict, centred on disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, affects global LNG flows, redefining risk for organisations worldwide, and regional energy security.

 Drawing on our world‑leading energy market modelling, the report sets out three disruption scenarios (3‑month, 6‑month and prolonged conflict) and their implications for prices, storage, trade patterns, investment decisions, and winners and losers across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. The document provides a data‑rich and scenario‑based view of short‑term volatility, medium‑term tightening, and long‑term structural change in global gas and LNG markets.