UK financial vulnerability outlook for winter 2026/27

Key takeaway: Using Baringa's proprietary Financial Vulnerability Model, which assesses income, savings and essential spending across around 28 million UK households, our latest outlook reveals that financial vulnerability is becoming increasingly concentrated beneath stable national averages.

Economic conditions are improving for many UK households, but that does not tell the whole story. Using Baringa's proprietary Financial Vulnerability Model, our latest outlook reveals a growing concentration of vulnerability beneath the national averages. While headline vulnerability remains broadly stable, a hardening core of households is becoming increasingly exposed to persistent cost pressures, limited financial resilience and rising debt burdens.

These findings underline a single message: while the macroeconomic outlook is improving, financial vulnerability is becoming more entrenched.

For energy suppliers, water companies, regulators and policymakers, understanding where financial vulnerability is concentrated, how it is evolving, and what it means for future affordability and debt outcomes will be critical to supporting customers effectively and managing emerging risks.