UK consumer spending outlook Q1 2026
5 min read 27 March 2026
What do uncertain times spell for consumer spending?
The opening months of 2026 have been marked by escalating geopolitical conflict and trade frictions, with uncertainty over energy prices looming large.
The Baringa UK consumer spending outlook explores how consumers will respond to these changeable conditions. Given the significant downside risks of continued conflict in the Middle East and a potential slowdown in economic growth, we’ve modelled four distinct scenarios to accommodate pronounced macroeconomic volatility.
Our report reveals crucial insights to help retailers and consumer packaged goods companies navigate this turbulent business environment and plan effectively for the year ahead.
Read the full report to discover:
- Why 2026 promises a gradual, uneven recovery in consumer expenditure
- What key downside risks could put a damper on spending
- Which consumer segments make the most promising target markets
- Which product categories represent the safest growth bets
- What regions are poised to see the biggest spending increases.
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