The Horizons Briefing: Macro-economic insights for strategic decision-makers

Short-term squeeze or seismic shift: how will the largest oil supply shock in history unwind?

With a US-Iran framework agreement signed and the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen, markets have moved quickly to price in resolution. But for business leaders, this breakthrough sharpens rather than settles the question: how much of this do we plan around, and how much do we treat as already behind us?

Our analysis reveals the real danger: that markets are pricing out the risk too fast, just as they priced in the disruption too slowly. This isn’t a crisis that’s over – it's a new phase of uncertainty that demands clearer-eyed planning.

Here’s what you’ll find inside Horizons 2026, Q2:

The data you need

Key macroeconomic indicators from leading international sources, consolidated in one place

Expert interpretation

Our economists cut through the noise to explain what the numbers mean for your business

Sector and economy impact

Clear assessment of where the crisis hits hardest and what that means for your decisions

Download the report and read on for answers:

• How will disruption in energy markets feed through into global inflation?
• Which economies and sectors face the greatest exposure to higher energy costs?
• Where are labour markets most resilient and where is the risk of unemployment highest?
• What will happen to interest rates and growth forecasts if uncertainty persists?