In this study, Baringa has sought to bring its landmark 2018 ‘70 by 30’ study into 2021, by accounting for significant market and policy developments in Northern Ireland, and to determine the necessary steps to achieve a zero-carbon power sector.

Key findings

• Increasing the renewable electricity generation (RES-E) in Northern Ireland from around 45% today to a target of greater than 80% is very achievable by 2030, using the same approach required to achieve a less ambitious 70% target, and implementing more of existing and proven technologies.
• The SONI TESNI 2020 Accelerated Ambition scenario renewable capacity targets should be adopted for 2030; 2.5 GW of onshore wind, 500 MW of offshore wind and 1.2 GW of solar PV.
• This target can be achieved at a lower cost to the end consumer in Northern Ireland, compared to delivery of a less ambitious 70% RES-E target.
• A zero-carbon power system is possible, and is an achievable target in the early 2030s.
• Realising this target requires incremental investment in a suite of technologies new to Northern Ireland, and the implementation of a carbon price floor in the I-SEM.

For more information on the contents of the report or how Baringa can help your organisation, please contact the report authors Mark Turner and Alec Granville-Willett.