Britain’s vulnerable working population in 2022

Baringa’s Vulnerability Index reveals the most at-risk areas of the UK’s working population

It is vitally important that we understand the parts of the labour market that are exposed to a deteriorating economic environment so that companies and policymakers can target their planning and support to minimise economic distress.

Baringa has created a Vulnerability Index of working people in order to identify likely changes in financial vulnerability across the UK’s working population. Our main findings are:

• Five million workers are in the highest risk category for increasing vulnerability.

• Londoners have suffered the greatest increases in their relative level of financial vulnerability.

• Workers in a quarter of sectors that we analysed have become more financially vulnerable.

• It’s a rapidly changing situation and therefore important that businesses adopt a proactive approach to face into the challenge.

Interactive map of financial vulnerability across regions/sectors

Hover over a UK region to see the relative change in financial vulnerability of workers in different sectors of the economy.

London’s growing vulnerability risk suggests a ‘levelling down’

The past two years has seen a reversal to the historic patterns of changing economic fortunes, with Londoners suffering the greatest increases in risk of financial vulnerability.

London’s economy is disproportionately weighted towards the sectors and occupations which show the highest levels of vulnerability risk in Baringa’s Index – notably a strong service base. Even in more resilient sectors, such as manufacturing, London’s furlough take-up was far above the national average.

The UK’s service sector workers are increasingly at risk of becoming vulnerable

Workers most at risk of becoming vulnerable are most likely to be in three sectors:

• Health and social work
• Arts, entertainment and recreation
• Accommodation and food services

By contrast, most manufacturing roles appear better insulated from a worsening economic outlook, with just one sub-set of the manufacturing sector in the vulnerable category.

The young and the old are most at risk of financial vulnerability

Age is an important factor in the likelihood of financial vulnerability emerging.

Those new in the workforce are more likely to be vulnerable, and the Index shows that 18–22-year-olds are three times more likely to have become more vulnerable than average since 2020. A similar proportion of over 60s have also seen the highest level of increase in vulnerability indicators.

Women’s financial vulnerability risk increases in middle age

The probability of newly emerging vulnerability is broadly equal in earlier age groups before women demonstrate a heightened risk during their 30s and 40s. This is reduced in their 50s before widening significantly again in their 60s.