Introducing the Baringa Consumer Spending Model
5 min read 10 June 2025
A series of social, economic and political crises have driven sharp changes in consumer confidence over the last 5 years.
This unpredictability undermines the effectiveness of consumer surveys, which are widely used as a method to forecast longer-term consumer spending trends, as mindsets are impacted significantly by external events in real-time.
As a result we have developed the Baringa Consumer Spending Model which offers more granular and less sentiment driven consumer spending forecasts than traditional surveys. Our years of working in energy utilities and developing a UK household model to predict utility bills’ default rate has given us critical insight into the state of the UK household and their financial health, supporting the rigorous development of our Consumer Spending Model. Baringa’s Consumer Spending Model analyses expenditure patterns from the 28 million households in the UK. Unlike standard consumer surveys, our model is based on solid economic fundamentals, granular household level data and robust scenario analysis.
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