Baringa launches US Consumer Spending Outlook, revealing growing divide beneath resilient consumer spending

New analysis shows consumer spending remains positive, but strength is increasingly concentrated among affluent households, major metros, and specific consumer segments.

NEW YORK, NY, July 28, 2026 – Baringa has launched its inaugural US Consumer Spending Outlook, a new analysis of consumer spending patterns across approximately 130 million US households that examines how spending could evolve under a range of economic scenarios. The report finds that while the US consumer remains resilient overall, the national average increasingly masks significant differences in spending power across income groups, household types, regions, and product categories.

Built using Baringa's proprietary Consumer Spending Model, the analysis combines economic fundamentals, household-level data, and scenario modeling to assess how changes in inflation, housing costs, utilities, energy prices, and broader economic conditions may affect consumer demand in 2026. The outlook is part of Baringa's Horizons Series, our ongoing program of macroeconomic insights for strategic decision-makers. Through this more detailed view of demand across regions, income groups, and consumer segments, the report helps businesses better understand where spending is holding up, where pressure is building, and how demand could shift under different economic conditions.

The report projects US consumer spending growth of approximately 2.2% in its pre-crisis scenario. Under downside economic scenarios, growth slows to approximately 1.8%, 0.9%, and 0.3%, highlighting how quickly spending momentum could weaken as household cost pressures intensify.

Among the report's key findings:

• A single affluent consumer segment accounts for 8.1% of households but 25.1% of total consumer spending, demonstrating the growing concentration of demand.
• Spending strength is increasingly concentrated in large metropolitan areas, while many smaller metro, micro, and non-metro markets face greater pressure.
• Lower-income households experience significantly weaker spending outcomes under downside scenarios than higher-income consumers.
• Discretionary categories including restaurants, apparel, recreation, and vehicle purchases are most exposed to weakening consumer confidence and rising household costs.
• Gasoline costs emerge as the most significant downside swing factor across the model's economic scenarios.

"The headline story is that consumer spending power is becoming increasingly uneven," said Jeff Hartigan, Partner in Consumer Products & Retail at Baringa. "National averages can make demand look stable, even when specific consumer groups, regions, and discretionary categories are experiencing very different realities. Businesses need a more granular understanding of who is still spending, who is under pressure, and how that could change under different economic conditions."

The findings have important implications for retailers and consumer products companies as they navigate an increasingly fragmented consumer landscape. The report suggests that businesses relying solely on aggregated economic indicators may overlook important shifts in demand occurring across specific consumer segments and geographies.

The full US Consumer Spending Outlook 2026 is available for download here.

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Stephanie Forshee

Financial Profiles

sforshee@finprofiles.com