Who's playing good COP and bad COP at COP26?

Good COP – India surprised on the upside with a Net Zero 2070 commitment. Prime Minister Modi chose not to update India’s NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) before COP, however he has now delivered a significant upgrade in emission commitments. India remains a fierce advocate of developed market financial aid, with renewable energy commitments contingent on foreign funding. Baringa believes that delivering these funding promises is crucial to ensuring a just transition.

Bad COP – China revelled in the limelight during the Trump presidency, positioning itself in contrast to the US with an aggressive Net Zero ambition by 2060. This conference China has so far disappointed, with hopes of Xi Jinping agreeing to start the phase down of coal before 2030 so far unmet.

Nervous COP – “America is Back” according to Joe Biden. However, despite notable commitments on methane emissions, the real story for the US remains in Washington. Crucial climate legislation is expected in Congress next week which, if passed, would legitimise the US’s ambition to be a global climate leader; legislating a 50% emissions cut by 2030. Given the uncertainty of the US midterms next year, securing this climate legislation now is critical for both the US, as well as for global efforts to accelerate to net zero.