Modelling net zero strategies

How will European power markets and carbon emissions evolve between 2020 and 2040?

This multinational corporation is one of the biggest tech companies operating today – and they have equally big plans to evolve into a truly sustainable business. The company has set ambitious decarbonisation targets, including reaching 100% renewable energy supply at all data centres.

To deliver on the mission, the tech giant commissioned Baringa to provide in-depth analysis of renewables and energy markets throughout Europe.

We were tasked with modelling how different wholesale power markets were likely to change over the next 20 years, along with providing an assessment of the company’s potential carbon emissions under different scenarios and interventions.

Exploring pan-European power market evolution

Firstly, we had to understand where the market currently stood, and its impact on the company’s European data centres, so that we could model what the future would look like.

Working closely with the company’s energy & sustainability team, we defined a base case outlook for European power markets, looking at key assumptions regarding commodity price, load, technology cost and policy changes.

To better understand how future wholesale prices and emissions might evolve, we modelled multiple alternative market scenarios and sensitivities to test key parameters in the electricity system. Our cutting-edge in-house model of European power markets was a key enabler of the work.

We then completed a full assessment of grid carbon emissions across all scenarios at hourly granularity. This enabled us to calculate the required volumes of renewable power that the client would need to procure to reach their ambitious decarbonisation targets, and to advise on other interventions to reduce emissions in the most challenging hours – when renewables may not be generating.

Committing to becoming carbon negative

Baringa developed a 20-year projection of carbon emissions and wholesale power costs for the client’s European data centre footprint, focused on the client’s strategy, using our cutting-edge pan-European power market model.

Our analysis was well-received by the energy & sustainability team. We’re now engaging with them on an ongoing basis, creating zonal power market models (for countries where the electricity market is segmented by zone) and analysing transmission constraints in key locations, plus their impact on emissions.

Our work will play an important role in helping the company to pave the way to achieving 100% renewable electricity supply at all data centres – and reach their goal of becoming fully carbon neutral.

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